The Flash plugin is nearly ubiquitous on desktop personal computers. While installation stats are not easy to come by, it is estimated that between 90 and 97% of browsers have the latest version installed (v10 at the time of this writing). [1,2] When the previous – and very capable – version of the Flash Player (v9) is considered, the percentage of browser penetration gets closer to 99%.
If you’ve been reading technology news lately, however, you’ve probably noticed more frequent discussions about how Flash will soon die, or that it’s at least not looking as hearty as it once did. Most of this discussion centers around Apple’s refusal to allow the Flash plugin or apps created using the Flash IDE on the iPhone, iPod Touch and, more recently, the iPad. Over 85 million iPhones and Touches have been sold [3] and none of them can play applications created in Flash, nor can they play videos in the very popular Flash Video (FLV) format.
So is Flash a dead technology, or is the threat posed by Apple not as dire as it may seem?
I think the answer tends toward the latter of those two options. As mentioned above, nearly all desktop and laptop computers can play Flash applications and Flash videos. By one estimate, the number of Internet users worldwide is approaching 2 billion. [4] Using conservative numbers, assuming 1 billion desktop and laptop users, if all 85 million iPhones and Touches were online they wouldn’t comprise 1% of Internet users. Granted these numbers are rather fuzzy, but it still holds that Apple mobile device users make up a small percentage of all Internet users.
Moreover, Apple mobile devices are the *only* devices that plan to exclude Flash like this for the foreseeable future. Windows and Linux machines, non-Apple smartphones, and even Apple desktops and laptops continue to play Flash content without difficulty (or will in the near future [5]).
The Apple user base is a vocal minority and they’re technology trendsetters. Apple’s defensive stand toward Flash has some content providers, developers, and agencies (including Groove 11) considering the alternatives [6,7].
For most non-video content, however, the issue is not simply Flash vs. an alternative. Most Flash animations and interfaces would not work on the small form factor of *any* smart phone, not just the iPhone. Disregarding the iPad for a moment, the real issue then is small form vs. large form content. For the most part, "small form" = mobile devices (smartphones, Touches, etc) and "large form" = desktop devices (desktop computers, laptop computers). Content needs to be structured so it works on mobile devices and desktop devices. Typically this will just mean separate CSS for the mobile version of a Web site and alternative content (a static image, JS/HTML/HTML5 animation, or simply text) to replace any Flash.
If a Web site is built entirely in Flash or perhaps has a tool built in Flash, it will probably need to be re-imagined without Flash in a more compact layout for small form devices. This will mean time and money to create a second interface.
So was your investment in a Flash-heavy site or tool wasted if it needs to be recreated for mobile devices? Ask the question another way: If the mobile devices you are considering could play your Flash application right now, would you want them to? Some applications are simply built to be experienced on a bigger screen. Conversely, if you had accounted for small devices from Day One, you wouldn’t have tried to build one application that works on mobile and desktop devices, you would have built two separate interfaces for the application.
If you’ve a) built a site with a lot of Flash and it doesn’t currently work on an iPhone, and b) determined that it’s worthwhile for your site to be tailored to the portion of your audience that owns an iPhone (certainly not automatically true), you’ll need to build a second interface. If you had planned for the iPhone from the outset, you would have done this work earlier, so you can simply look at it as a task that’s been deferred until now.
[1]: http://www.riastats.com/
[2]: http://www.adobe.com/ … /flashplayer/version_penetration.html
[3]: http://metrics.admob.com/2010/05/april-2010-mobile-metrics-report/
[4]: http://www.internetworldstats.com/stats.htm
[5]: http://www.engadget.com/2010/04/30/adobe-cto-says-flash-10-1-for-android-in-june-will-froyo-foll/
[6]: http://youtube-global.blogspot.com/2010/01/introducing-youtube-html5-supported.html
[7]: http://www.digitalartsonline.co.uk/news/?newsID=3222690